My research deals with questions in the intersection between democratic institutions and armed conflict, for example why some elections see a high risk at risk of political violence and others not; the dynamics and patterns of electoral violence, and the impact of electoral violence on citizens and democratic institutions at large. I also study the political consequences of violent contention more broadly, for example how contentious politics influence transitions to and away from democracy.
My secondary research interests include the security implications of climate change; violence against non-combatants and how it can be prevented; and conflicts between non-state actors.
MY ONGOING PROJECTS
Electoral Violence: A threat to Democratic Transition and Consolidation?
Can political violence precipitate democratic backsliding? In this project, funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and the the Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities, we focus on the consequences of political violence for democratic governance. We study how political violence, particularly in the context of elections, influence democratic institutions, drawing on macro-level comparisons, and micro-level data. Do political violence lead voters to disengage from the political process, or to mobilize in support of democratic principles? Are voters response to violence and intimidation conditional on their political loyalties? The project adresses these research questions drawing on a 2019 post-election survey of 3000 respondents from the Indian states of West-Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, as well as other datasources. The project team includes Annekatrin Deglow (researcher), Gudlaug Olofsdottir (PhD student) and Jenniina Kotajoki (research assistant) at at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research. It also involves collaborative work with Ursula Daxecker at the University of Amsterdam.
Political legacies of electoral violence: Understanding challenges for democratic transition
In this project we examine how electoral malpractices, including violence and intimidation, influence democratic governance and democratization trajectories, with a particular focus on Nigeria. The project combines quantitative and qualitative analysis. For the quantitative part we have conducted a nationally representative post-election survey of 2400 citizens after the 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The survey covers questions related to citizens experience of electoral integrity, electoral malpractice, and - violence, as well as their democratic attitudes and engagement with democratic institutions. A policy brief discussing some descriptive patterns from the survey can be found here: policy brief. The qualitative analysis draws on a comparative case study of different areas in Lagos, which have seen different patterns of community mobilization after exposure to election related insecurity. The project is undertaken in collaboration with Henrik Angerbrandt and Annekatrin Deglow at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research and Nicholas Kerr at University of Florida, USA. The project is financed by the Swedish Research Council through a Development Research grant.
Climate Change, Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict
Climate change and extreme weather events are increasingly regarded as a significant threat to social stability and peace. Academics and policy makers are particularly concerned with how climate-related shocks may affect agricultural production and food security as factors contributing to armed conflict. Yet, the question of when and how climate induced food insecurity leads to armed conflict is still debated in academia. Addressing this research gap, this project has two research priorities:
Explore the institutional context under which climate-induced food insecurity is most likely to increase the risk of political violence.
Understand the behaviors of and interactions between non-state armed groups, civilians and the government in response to climate-induced food insecurity
The project combines global statistical analysis with in-depth case studies of the Philippines, Mali and Nigeria in order to make theoretical and empirical contributions to our understanding of which institutions matter most for preventing the adverse societal effects of climate change. In this project I am working together with Nina von Uexkull, Colin Walch, Sara Lindberg Bromley, Henrik Angerbrandt and Elisabeth Rosvold at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. The project is financed by a joint research grant by the Swedish Research Council, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) and FORMAS.
The INstitutional roots of electoral violence
How is the risk of election-induced violence influenced by institutional developments before, during and after the transition from authoritarian to democratic rule? In this project, directed by Kristine Höglund at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, we advance the knowledge about electoral violence and its institutional roots by combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. The project will draw on analysis of DECO: a novel, global dataset on violent electoral conflicts, covering the years 1989 to 2017. We will also conduct an in-depth analysis of Kenya and Zambia. These countries have similar electoral systems, but markedly different experiences of violence around elections. Jointly, the contributions will advance our understanding of the causes of electoral violence and its consequences for political institutions, peace and democracy. The project team also includes Håvard Hegre (Uppsala University).
Cost of contention
Mobilizing for and against Democracy
What are the aftereffects of political contention? The Costs of Contention project, directed by Christian Davenport at the University of Michigan and based at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (Norway) seeks to understand how diverse forms of political conflict and violence (e.g. genocide, civil war, human rights violations, protest, protest policing, terrorism, counter-terrorism, revolution, counter-revolution) influence various key political and economic outcomes, such as the type of political system, mass participation, economic development and foreign direct investment. In previous research, our understanding of the overall costs of conflict and violence has been limited by studying too narrow categories political conflict and violence as well as political and economic outcomes. The current project opens up the categories of contention and costs in order to achieve a comprehensive analysis of the real costs of contention. Additionally, the project seeks to explore not only global patterns but also sub-national and individual level patterns and processes. The research team includes Christian Davenport (University of Michigan), Håvard Nygård (PRIO), Ragnhild Nordås (University of Michigan), Scott Gates (University of Oslo), Dave Armstrong (Western University), amongst others.
In many countries across the world, the struggle over democracy remains a real and pressing concern. Yet, whereas some pro-democracy movements have been successful in prompting democratization, others have been violently shut down by dictators who successfully clung to power. Some movements that initially prompted real democratic gains have later seen these reversed. Why do some pro-democracy movements succeed, while others fail? The project Mobilizing for and against Democracy (MoDe) proposes that an answer to this important question can be found in the characteristics of the social groups that mobilize to support or oppose democracy. MoDe will through novel theory-development, an ambitious data collection effort, and a combination of statistical and case-oriented research methods offer a comprehensive picture of how democratization trajectories over the past 250 years have been shaped by the interest, capacity and interaction of the social groups involved. MoDe will analyze why particular social groups, for example students, land-owners, the military or industrial workers, mobilize to support or oppose a non-democratic regime. It will moreover examine how the composition of the coalitions that mobilize for or against the autocratic regime influence the likelihood of democratization; the risk of violence during the transition; the type of institutions implemented in the new regime; and the long-term prospect for democratic consolidation. Doing so, MoDe promises new knowledge regarding when democratization efforts succeed or fail. The project is based at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and financed by the Norwegian Research Council. The research team includes Marianne Dahl and Haakon Gjerløw (PRIO), Tore Wig, Carl Henrik Knutsen and Siranne Dahlum (University of Oslo), Nils Metternich (University College London), Espen Geelmuyden Roed (Uppsala University).